After studying political campaigns for decades, Doug Chapin now sees his name on a ballot.
The elections expert threw his hat in the ring to challenge Republican incumbent Tom Emmer in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, despite long odds for the Democrat in the conservative-leaning region.
Since filing for office in July 2025, Chapin has gained some traction with an energetic campaign of door-knockings and more than 20 town hall meetings. But his campaign fund — “just north” of $600,000, he said, made up mostly of individual donations — is a fraction of Emmer’s $10.1 million personal campaign war chest.
The gap is evident. Chapin has fewer campaign signs than Emmer, he’s run no TV ads, and the Cook Political Report rates the race as “Solid Republican.”
Even so, he’s banking on voter discontent to give him a chance in the district Emmer has won six times.
“I honestly think this race is different from others around the country in that the incumbent himself is so profoundly disliked, not just because of his policies but because of his abandonment of the district,” Chapin said at an Oct. 12 town hall in Blaine.
Chapin “is getting the word out to some extent” at the town halls, said Ryan Bergeron, the editor at the Annandale Advocate, a weekly newspaper in Wright County. “We’ve heard comments that Chapin will attend local events, but not Emmer,” he said.
Emmer, a member of the House Republican leadership as majority whip, has been busy campaigning, too — though not for himself but rather for Republican candidates around the country, sharing funds from his leadership political action committees ($22 million as of mid-October). Recently, he has appeared in some local TV ads.
Fairly new to Minnesota, Chapin, 62, is not new to politics. According to his campaign website, he “is a nationally recognized expert on election policy and administration with almost forty years of experience in the field.”
Originally from the Washington, D.C., area, Chapin moved to Minnesota in 2022 and now lives in Hanover, a northwest Twin Cities suburb.
“My late wife was from Minnesota, and we had always planned to move back here when we retired,” he said. “I just decided to go ahead and do that in 2022.” His three adult children remain living on the East Coast.
For more than a decade, Chapin led elections research at The Pew Charitable Trusts, the latter part of that stint working remotely in Minnesota. He also spent 10 years at the University of Minnesota’s Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs, where he founded the nation’s first online undergraduate and graduate certificate program in election administration.
He retired after the company lost contracts during what he termed “DOGE-mania.”
“I started thinking about running in January 2025 when the president pardoned the January 6 rioters. I never really formally announced but started reaching out to local DFL and state committees,” he said.
The 6th District covers five counties north and west of the Twin Cities metro area – Carver, Wright, Sherburne, Anoka and Benton – as well as St. Cloud and its suburbs in eastern Stearns County. Although reliably “red” in the past, “the changes in this district are remarkable,” Chapin said.
It butts up against the 7th District, where Democrats are similarly hoping for a late surge from Erik Osberg, the Democrat from Wadena who is putting up a spirited challenge to Republican incumbent Michelle Fischbach.
Like Chapin, Osberg has been campaigning for more than a year, holding many events around the sprawling district that covers nearly the western half of Minnesota. He recently received the endorsement of Forum Communications, the Fargo, N.D.-based media company that owns seven daily and weekly newspapers in the 7th District.
Cook also rates the 7th District as “Solid Republican.”
“It’s not the district that Mr. Emmer won 12 years ago,” Chapin said of the 6th. “The metro is pushing out into this district. We’re the fastest growing congressional district in the state. This district in 2026 is a lot like the 3rd District was in 2018, when Dean Phillips defeated Eric Paulson.”
Also, he said: “I think it’s a referendum on Mr. Emmer, driven in large part, but not exclusively, by his blind support for the president. We’re tired of chaos, cruelty, and corruption. They just moved the swamp to their own backyard.”
The Emmer campaign did not respond to emailed questions from MinnPost. An analysis of his campaign activities posted on MN06Watch, a vote tracker, shows numerous campaign appearances by the House majority whip around the nation for other Republican candidates.
“We had a great time in Cleveland supporting @DerekMerrin!” Emmer wrote Oct. 20 on X. “It is time for new leadership in #OH09.”
Other recent posts on X showed Emmer — a former head of the National Republican Campaign Committee — campaigning in Pennsylvania for House candidates Ryan Mackenzie, Scott Perry and Rob Bresnahan and in Michigan for Mike Bouchard, Bill Huizenga and Tom Barrett.
“One of the things that’s been hardest for us in the last couple of months has been a lack of media coverage,” Chapin said. “Mr. Emmer has clearly decided he’s going to go around the country and campaign for other Republicans.”
Chapin said Emmer hasn’t had many local appearances except occasional media interviews.
“What’s frustrating is that a lot of outlets have decided because he doesn’t want to talk about it, they don’t want to talk about it,” he said.
Chapin’s candidacy has received some coverage, including reports on KARE-11 TV and St. Cloud Live and a commentary in the Minnesota Star Tribune. On Oct. 10, he was interviewed by independent journalist Aaron Parnas.
As Tuesday’s election looms, his campaign has planned several door-knocking sessions this week in Monticello, Chaska, Lino Lakes and St. Cloud.
The Democrats have never really challenged Emmer, Chapin said at the Blaine event. While the 6th District looks “red” on paper, Chapin said he studied the data before he decided to run, noting that Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar performed better than Emmer in the district. Many Republicans are concerned about the rising costs of food, fuel and housing. The biggest issue is that the “(Trump) administration has waged war on Minnesota,” he said.
While knocking on doors, “pretty much all anybody wants to talk about is economic issues, whether it’s prices or healthcare,” Chapin said. “A lot more people are talking about childcare. I met a couple from Blaine at the State Fair who told me that their childcare bill was twice their monthly house payment.”
Some of his policy positions include support for a single-payer healthcare system, continued protections for the Boundary Waters and an expansion of the number of House members to better reflect the population.
Responding to a town hall question about term limits, Chapin said elections should play that role, yet there needs to be change. U.S. Supreme Court rulings, such as Citizens United, have allowed unlimited corporate spending on campaigns, he said, and the Voting Rights Act has been weakened.
“It’s pretty much anything goes,” he said.
He also said there is too much power in House leadership, of which Emmer, of course, is a part. “Members of Congress are like puppies,” he said. “If you don’t give them enough to do, they start chewing the furniture.”
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